North East 2017

These scenarios have been devised from the original SHiNE  work revised and rethought to meet earlier critiques and to incorporate more recent work. Since April 2005 SHiNE was incorporated with Foresight North East into Future Matters .

The scenarios are an attempt to understand the factors that will determine future lifestyles in the North East of England. They are not complete or exclusive predictions of the future. They indicate the way in which some drivers of change will take the economy. They have value in acting as a backdrop against which to make strategic judgements or to engage others in a longer term strategic discussion.

Sustainable wealth creation

This axis is an attempt to capture the relationships consumer behaviour, globalisation, product cycles, and the knowledge based society. At one extreme it views developments in digital media and the virtual economy as weightless operations. This contrasted at the other extreme with an economy heavily involved in production on a large scale.

Cultural integrity and diversity

This axis tries to capture the social relationships as they are impacted by a changing world. Each community is caught between the need to compete to retain and attract talented individuals and the maintenance of the positive aspects of it own culture. It contrasts the apparent glamour of a cosmopolitan world with the sustaining nature of a community based on traditional values.

Urban Chic

The essence of this world is being at the leading edge whether in fashion, travel or business. In this fast moving lifestyle people are continually seeking new and exclusive experiences. Companies are responding by spotting early identification of needs and wants and finding novel and interesting ways of satisfying them. Consumers are loyal to exclusive brands that deliver the cachet. Clearly the high life is not available to everyone and the exclusive lifestyles whether urban or rural, will create friction in that part of society that is excluded.

Custom ‘Burbs

This scenario reflects the desire to differentiate lifestyle, consumption or production in a world of large scale production. Mass customisation is a term that could be applied, signifying individual identity stamped on mass produced products. Houses built to the same national designs are differentiated by ground works and internal fittings. The world of work is changing as people have more than one job which they can carry out from home or remote locations. This is a partial solution to traffic congestion built up from living and working in dispersed locations. Brands have a useful life and are taken up and dropped as fashions dictate. Worklessness and economic and social exclusion continue in pockets of multiple deprivation.

Glocality

A global locality is defined by the homogeneity of world cultures as multinationals and lifestyles take on a familiar look globally. A McDonald’s hamburger is the same product from Shanghai to Oregon but it takes on a distinctly local flavour and packaging. Consumption patterns are increasingly dictated by a low cost high volume approach. Individuals remain loyal to value for money brands in this world. Mechanisation, lean supply chains and large scale characterise new properties. Public services are aimed at delivering at lowest costs. Private services are available to those with the wealth, leaving excluded and disenfranchised individuals to be administered to by charities and community initiatives.

Village people

This scenario is characterised by a strong sense of community identity. Indifferent to brands, values are important to individuals and people are prepared to take to the streets to re-establish them. From anti globalisation to opposing local hospital closures, community assets are valued. Deprivation exists in this scenario but it is confronted by a multitude of programmes rooted in the local community.